Live slips00 cr currently staked
Repriced cards9markets with a recorded line move
Evidence-fed26cards with published evidence updates
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- Optimus becomes a fully software-customizable robot by December 31, 2026
Maintenance repriced · 1.24x (-0.01x)
- OpenAI showcases its first ChatGPT-powered device in the second half of 2026
Maintenance repriced · 1.60x (-0.01x)
- xAI will catch up to Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI by end of 2026
Maintenance repriced · 1.78x (-0.01x)
- Apple gets its AI smart glasses ready for production by December 31, 2026
Maintenance repriced · 1.29x (-0.01x)
- Deadline settlement
Anthropic completes the broader Claude mobile voice rollout by March 31, 2026
- Deadline settlement
Meta releases its Behemoth AI model by June 30, 2025
- Deadline settlement
Apple launches its smart home command center by March 31, 2025
- Elon Musk X post
xAI will catch up to Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI by end of 2026
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5 open / 17 trackedProduct ship dates
Optimus becomes a fully software-customizable robot by December 31, 2026
2 open / 7 trackedAI launchesxAI will catch up to Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI by end of 2026
1 open / 1 trackedGovernment / policy promisesDOGE produces $150 billion in FY2026 savings by September 30, 2026
0 open / 1 trackedCreator / CEO claimsX launches peer-to-peer payments by December 31, 2024
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Reviewed boards
Creator / CEO claimsMusk deadline board
Flagship board for Elon-linked delivery claims, launches, and deadline promises.
Product ship datesApple launch calendarApple hardware, software, and feature shipping windows gathered into one product lane.
AI launchesAnthropic release radarClaude and Anthropic launch predictions grouped for a shorter-horizon AI lane.
AI launchesOpenAI release radarOpenAI launch, release, and availability predictions reviewed into one group.
Government / policy promisesDOGE savings watchGovernment-efficiency promises and savings targets tied to DOGE.
AI launchesMeta AI watchMeta AI launches, feature promises, and public roadmap claims.
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Showing 12 of 26 markets in the full archive.
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openDOGEQuarter close
Musk said DOGE would produce $150 billion in savings in fiscal year 2026 after earlier, much larger savings targets were dialed back.
1.57x-0.01x
openxAIYear-end card
On March 14, 2026, Musk claimed on X that xAI would catch up to Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI "this year" after a ranking placed xAI ~7 months behind. xAI currently trails on major benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks.
1.78x-0.01x
openOpenAIYear-end card
Axios-reported comments from OpenAI executive Chris Lehane put the first ChatGPT-powered device showcase in the latter half of 2026.
1.60x-0.01x
openTeslaYear-end card
Electrek’s shareholder meeting coverage records Musk saying that by 2026 Optimus would become a fully software-customizable robot.
1.24x-0.01x
openSpaceXYear-end card
Musk said SpaceX would launch the first uncrewed Starships to Mars in 2026 to test intact landings ahead of later crewed missions.
1.22x-0.01x
openAppleYear-end card
Macworld reported Gurman saying Apple had made significant progress on smart glasses and could have them ready for production by the end of 2026.
1.29x-0.01x
openAppleYear-end card
After the spring 2025 miss, Gurman-linked coverage pushed Apple’s smart home hub into 2026.
1.12x-0.01x
openTeslaYear-end card
Tesla’s Q4 2024 shareholder deck says the purpose-built Robotaxi product, Cybercab, is scheduled for volume production starting in 2026.
1.18x-0.01x
bustedAnthropicQuarter close
Anthropic’s own help docs still frame Claude voice mode as an expanding rollout, making the end of March 2026 a natural short-horizon check for full availability.
1.16x-0.01x
bustedTeslaYear-end card
At the shareholder meeting, Musk said Tesla should have a thousand to a couple thousand Optimus robots working in its factories next year.
2.30x
bustedTeslaYear-end card
During Tesla’s Q1 2024 results, Musk said Tesla could begin selling Optimus to customers outside the company by the end of 2025.
2.25x
bustedMetaQuarter close
Reuters summarized reporting that Meta internally pushed Behemoth from April to June before delaying it again to fall or later.
2.02x
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