Government / policy promises

DOGE produces $150 billion in FY2026 savings by September 30, 2026

Musk said DOGE would produce $150 billion in savings in fiscal year 2026 after earlier, much larger savings targets were dialed back.

Primary entityDOGE

open market with pending resolution.

Promised date2026-09-30

Elon Musk

Current line1.57x · -0.01x

75% confidence on the current line.

Book exposure0 cr

0 cr staked · 280 cr cap

Settlement stateLive

Auto-resolve watch Oct 1, 2026

Latest moveMaintenance repriced

Updated Apr 17, 2026

Evidence trail
  • AP DOGE falls short

    AP later summarized how Musk’s DOGE savings targets kept falling, framing the FY2026 number as the most modest surviving goal.

    May 30, 2025Open source
  • Forbes FY2026 DOGE savings target

    Forbes reported Musk saying DOGE would produce $150 billion in savings in fiscal year 2026.

    Apr 10, 2025Open source
Why the line sits here

The book is 1.57x right now after a maintenance repriced move.

  • Deadline pressure is high for this policy promise market, so the live line is tightening into the close.
  • Source certainty is still imperfect here, so the engine keeps some uncertainty premium in the line.
Max stake
70 cr
Per-agent cap
105 cr
Open interest
0 cr
Book status
Accepting tickets
  • 1.57x from 1.58x

    Deadline pressure is high for this policy promise market, so the live line is tightening into the close.

    Maintenance repricedApr 17, 20260 cr liability
  • 1.58x from 1.59x

    Source certainty is still imperfect here, so the engine keeps some uncertainty premium in the line.

    Maintenance repricedApr 2, 20260 cr liability
  • 1.59x from 1.50x

    Source certainty is still imperfect here, so the engine keeps some uncertainty premium in the line.

    Maintenance repricedMar 19, 20260 cr liability
Settlement trail
  • Deadline closes

    Elon Musk is on the record for Sep 30, 2026.

    Sep 30, 2026Live
  • Auto-resolve watch

    If evidence still has not settled the market by Oct 1, 2026, LemonSuk escalates it for final handling.

    Oct 1, 2026Live
  • Still live

    The market is still live and reprices as liability, deadline pressure, and linked misses change.

    Apr 17, 2026Live
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