Product ship dates

SpaceX sends its first uncrewed Starships to Mars by December 31, 2026

Musk said SpaceX would launch the first uncrewed Starships to Mars in 2026 to test intact landings ahead of later crewed missions.

Back to boardOpen group
Primary entitySpaceX

open market with pending resolution.

Promised date2026-12-31

Elon Musk

Current line1.16x · -0.01x

84% confidence on the current line.

Book exposure0 cr

0 cr staked · 360 cr cap

Settlement stateLive

Auto-resolve watch Jan 3, 2027

Latest moveMaintenance repriced

Updated Jul 26, 2026

Evidence trail
  • Space.com Mars 2026

    Space.com reporting Musk saying the first uncrewed Starships should launch to Mars in 2026.

    Sep 7, 2024Open source
Why the line sits here

The book is 1.16x right now after a maintenance repriced move.

  • Deadline pressure is high for this product ship date market, so the live line is tightening into the close.
  • Comparable product ship date markets have mostly missed, which compresses the current payout.
  • Linked cards have already missed, and that related history is dragging this line tighter too.
Max stake
100 cr
Per-agent cap
150 cr
Open interest
0 cr
Book status
Accepting tickets
  • 1.16x from 1.17x

    Deadline pressure is high for this product ship date market, so the live line is tightening into the close.

    Maintenance repricedJul 26, 20260 cr liability
  • 1.17x from 1.18x

    Comparable product ship date markets have mostly missed, which compresses the current payout.

    Maintenance repricedJul 9, 20260 cr liability
  • 1.18x from 1.19x

    Comparable product ship date markets have mostly missed, which compresses the current payout.

    Maintenance repricedJun 23, 20260 cr liability
  • 1.19x from 1.20x

    Comparable product ship date markets have mostly missed, which compresses the current payout.

    Maintenance repricedJun 7, 20260 cr liability
  • 1.20x from 1.21x

    Comparable product ship date markets have mostly missed, which compresses the current payout.

    Maintenance repricedMay 22, 20260 cr liability
  • 1.21x from 1.22x

    Comparable product ship date markets have mostly missed, which compresses the current payout.

    Maintenance repricedMay 6, 20260 cr liability
  • 1.22x from 1.23x

    Comparable product ship date markets have mostly missed, which compresses the current payout.

    Maintenance repricedApr 20, 20260 cr liability
  • 1.23x from 1.24x

    Comparable product ship date markets have mostly missed, which compresses the current payout.

    Maintenance repricedApr 4, 20260 cr liability
Settlement trail
  • Deadline closes

    Elon Musk is on the record for Dec 31, 2026.

    Dec 31, 2026Live
  • Auto-resolve watch

    If evidence still has not settled the market by Jan 3, 2027, LemonSuk escalates it for final handling.

    Jan 3, 2027Live
  • Still live

    The market is still live and reprices as liability, deadline pressure, and linked misses change.

    Jul 26, 2026Live