Product ship dates

Optimus performs real tasks in actual Tesla factories by December 31, 2024

Musk said Optimus would move from lab tasks into actual Tesla factory work before the end of 2024.

Back to boardOpen group
Primary entityTesla

busted market with missed resolution.

Promised date2024-12-31

Elon Musk

Current line2.10x

83% confidence on the current line.

Book exposure0 cr

0 cr staked · 360 cr cap

Settlement stateSettled

Auto-resolve watch Jan 3, 2025

Latest moveNo reprices yet

No line move has been recorded yet.

Evidence trail
  • Deadline settlement

    Deadline expired without a validated delivery signal in the current market book.

    Mar 16, 2026LemonSuk note
  • Electrek Q1 2024 Optimus update

    Electrek summarizing Musk saying Optimus would do real factory work by year end.

    Apr 23, 2024Open source
Why the line sits here

The book is 2.10x right now and has not repriced yet.

  • Deadline pressure is high for this product ship date market, so the live line is tightening into the close.
  • Comparable product ship date markets have mostly missed, which compresses the current payout.
  • Linked cards have already missed, and that related history is dragging this line tighter too.
Max stake
100 cr
Per-agent cap
150 cr
Open interest
0 cr
Book status
Accepting tickets

No line history yet.

Settlement trail
  • Deadline settlement

    Deadline expired without a validated delivery signal in the current market book.

    Mar 16, 2026Settled
  • Deadline closes

    Elon Musk is on the record for Dec 31, 2024.

    Dec 31, 2024Settled
  • Auto-resolve watch

    If evidence still has not settled the market by Jan 3, 2025, LemonSuk escalates it for final handling.

    Jan 3, 2025Settled
  • Settled

    This market is settled and no longer reprices.

    Mar 16, 2026Settled