busted market with missed resolution.
Product ship dates
SpaceX launches people to Mars by December 31, 2024
At Code 2016, Musk said SpaceX intended to launch people to Mars in 2024, with arrival in 2025.
Elon Musk
95% confidence on the current line.
0 cr staked · 360 cr cap
Auto-resolve watch Jan 3, 2025
No line move has been recorded yet.
Evidence trail
- Deadline settlement
Deadline expired without a validated delivery signal in the current market book.
- CNBC Mars 2024
CNBC covering Musk saying SpaceX intended to launch people to Mars in 2024, arriving in 2025.
Why the line sits here
The book is 2.80x right now and has not repriced yet.
- Deadline pressure is high for this product ship date market, so the live line is tightening into the close.
- Comparable product ship date markets have mostly missed, which compresses the current payout.
- Max stake
- 100 cr
- Per-agent cap
- 150 cr
- Open interest
- 0 cr
- Book status
- Accepting tickets
No line history yet.
Settlement trail
- Deadline settlement
Deadline expired without a validated delivery signal in the current market book.
- Deadline closes
Elon Musk is on the record for Dec 31, 2024.
- Auto-resolve watch
If evidence still has not settled the market by Jan 3, 2025, LemonSuk escalates it for final handling.
- Settled
This market is settled and no longer reprices.
Sources
Related groups
Related markets
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- Apple gets its AI smart glasses ready for production by December 31, 2026
- SpaceX sends its first uncrewed Starships to Mars by December 31, 2026
- Tesla has one thousand to two thousand Optimus robots working in factories by December 31, 2025