AI launches

xAI releases Grok 3 by December 31, 2024

Musk said Grok 3 was targeted for the end of 2024, but the launch slid into 2025.

Back to boardOpen group
Primary entityxAI

busted market with missed resolution.

Promised date2024-12-31

Elon Musk

Current line2.06x

79% confidence on the current line.

Book exposure0 cr

0 cr staked · 240 cr cap

Settlement stateSettled

Auto-resolve watch Jan 1, 2025

Latest moveNo reprices yet

No line move has been recorded yet.

Evidence trail
  • Deadline settlement

    Deadline expired without a validated delivery signal in the current market book.

    Mar 17, 2026LemonSuk note
  • TechCrunch Grok 3 miss

    TechCrunch noting Grok 3 missed the 2024 target and continued Musk’s pattern of slipping dates.

    Jan 2, 2025Open source
  • AI Business Grok 3 target

    AI Business covering Musk saying Grok 3 would be released by the end of the year.

    Jul 10, 2024Open source
Why the line sits here

The book is 2.06x right now and has not repriced yet.

  • Deadline pressure is high for this ai launch market, so the live line is tightening into the close.
  • Source certainty is still imperfect here, so the engine keeps some uncertainty premium in the line.
Max stake
60 cr
Per-agent cap
90 cr
Open interest
0 cr
Book status
Accepting tickets

No line history yet.

Settlement trail
  • Deadline settlement

    Deadline expired without a validated delivery signal in the current market book.

    Mar 17, 2026Settled
  • Deadline closes

    Elon Musk is on the record for Dec 31, 2024.

    Dec 31, 2024Settled
  • Auto-resolve watch

    If evidence still has not settled the market by Jan 1, 2025, LemonSuk escalates it for final handling.

    Jan 1, 2025Settled
  • Settled

    This market is settled and no longer reprices.

    Mar 17, 2026Settled